Counterpoint: GenAI Smartphones to Capture 45% of Global Shipments in 2026

Smartphones with on-device generative AI capabilities are on track to become the new normal. According to Counterpoint Research’s latest GenAI smartphone market forecast, devices equipped with generative AI will account for 45% of global smartphone shipments in 2026, climbing from 36% in 2025 — despite what is shaping up to be a brutal year for the broader handset market.

The rosy GenAI outlook comes with a sharp counterpoint: persistent storage supply constraints are expected to drag overall global smartphone shipments down 13.9% year-over-year to just 1.08 billion units, which would mark an all-time low. The squeeze is most acute at the budget end, where rising component costs leave little margin to maneuver.

Apple and Samsung continue to dominate the GenAI smartphone space, buoyed by massive scale and entrenched premium portfolios. With the iPhone 17 series, GenAI features now span nearly Apple’s entire product line. Samsung, meanwhile, is pushing ahead with Agentic AI capabilities — more autonomous, goal-driven AI experiences — and rolling them out across its flagship devices.

Looking further out, Counterpoint expects GenAI smartphones to reach 52% of global shipments by 2027, cementing generative AI as a standard feature rather than a differentiator. The firm notes that premium GenAI handsets are far better positioned to absorb rising component costs, particularly storage, further widening the gap between flagship and entry-level segments.

The knock-on effects extend beyond new device sales. As consumers hold onto phones longer and entry-level options become less compelling, Counterpoint sees growing opportunity in the refurbished market. The forecast paints a picture of a bifurcating industry: premium GenAI phones charging ahead while the budget tier contracts, with second-hand devices filling the gap for cost-conscious buyers.