Anthropic Beats OpenAI to the IPO Window With $1B+ Quarterly Profit

Anthropic is on track to post more than $1 billion in profit in the third quarter of this year — and it has already filed confidentially for an IPO. The company submitted its S-1 filing on June 1, according to a new report from SemiAnalysis.

If Anthropic goes public as planned, it would be the largest AI lab IPO on record. The timing is strategic: OpenAI is reportedly pushing its own public offering to 2027, giving Anthropic a clear window to test investor appetite for pure-play AI companies.

Combined, Anthropic and OpenAI now have nearly $100 billion in annual recurring revenue, per SemiAnalysis’ estimates. But Anthropic has pulled ahead in B2B markets, driven largely by the rapid adoption of Claude Code in software development. The coding assistant has turned into a genuine revenue engine, and it’s the main reason Anthropic scaled its AI model monetization this year.

SemiAnalysis used a bottom-up Tokenomics model to estimate Anthropic’s finances, breaking down revenue by SKU, service tier, and customer type. The firm says a recent Wall Street Journal article on Anthropic’s financials validated the model’s accuracy.

The analysis suggests Anthropic has an unusually strong margin structure for an AI company. Its pricing power allows it to keep investing in new models while extending its lead over both closed-source and open-source competitors. In a base-case scenario, SemiAnalysis believes Anthropic could reach a $6 trillion market capitalization — an eye-popping figure, but one the firm argues is plausible if execution stays on track.

The real strategic play here is sequencing. By filing first, Anthropic forces OpenAI to open its books and raise the capital it needs for the massive AI infrastructure buildout still ahead. And unlike some competitors, Anthropic’s current revenue growth doesn’t depend on any new Microsoft account infrastructure — the barriers to customer acquisition have been largely dismantled.

Anthropic has been quietly building momentum all year. Now it’s stepping into the spotlight — and dragging its biggest rival along with it.